October 2025
The October 2025 Market Report forecasts the growing conditions, market demand, and overall climate of the month’s most in-demand aromatic products. Only featuring certified organic essential oils, production of our Sweet Orange Organic Oil has been strained by the drought and rising temperatures that are shrinking crop yield. Similarly, cultivation of Organic Thyme Essential Oil has waned in the face of drought, meanwhile, growing conditions for Patchouli Organic Essential Oil have been favorable enough to promote an increase in yield.
As our only featured carrier oil, market conditions for Kukui Nut Carrier Oil are expected to remain stable since yield of kukui nuts have not been negatively affected. Finally, this month’s only raw material, Menthol Crystals, is projected to face shortages due to complications and fluctuations in the natural menthol market.
Continue reading to stay informed on the latest industry trends from the experts at New Directions Aromatics.
Organic Orange Sweet Essential Oil is cold pressed from the fruit peels of organically grown Citrus sinensis throughout Italy, South Africa, and Mexico. The harvest season runs from November to May, with multiple harvests throughout the year. The Citrus sinensis trees thrive in volcanic soil and require daytime temperatures of up to 30°C and cooler nights of up to 20°C to maintain fruit quality.
This year, drought and sustained high temperatures have reduced the crop yield by 20–30% compared to last year. Although production is lower, availability remains stable as suppliers are well covered until the next harvest. The market demand for Organic Orange Sweet Essential Oil is steady, with prices expected to remain firm as the next harvest approaches and buyers begin bulk negotiations in October.
Patchouli Organic Essential Oil is steam distilled from the Pogostemon cablin leaves organically grown in India. Harvested multiple times annually, Pogostemon cablin is typically harvested every 3–4 months in deep, fertile, loamy soil rich in organic matter. This herb also thrives in warm, humid climates that are characteristic to India.
Current growing conditions have been favorable for Organic Patchouli, resulting in a slightly improved yield (up 0.2%–0.8% over last year). With no significant weather disruptions or pest challenges, the market supply is stable, and no shortages are expected in the coming quarter. Demand continues to hold at a steady level, with the next ideal period for bulk purchasing inquiries being October.
Steam distilled from the leaves of organically grown Thymus vulgaris in Morocco, Thyme has a single harvest annually, occurring between April and May. This evergreen shrub typically thrives in wild-growing environments that benefit from rain and snow during December to February.
However, Morocco continues to experience a prolonged drought over the past five years, leading to shorter crops and limited yields of organic Thymus vulgaris. Although production levels have remained stable compared to last year, the lack of sufficient rainfall continues to strain availability. As a result, shortages for Thyme Organic Essential Oil are anticipated in the next quarter, and market prices are expected to trend upward due to tightening supply. The best time to begin bulk pricing discussions remains April to May, aligned with the harvest season.
Cold pressed from the nutrient-dense nuts of the Aleurites moluccana tree grown in Indonesia, Kukui Nut Carrier Oil is unrefined, retaining its unique profile of antioxidants and polyunsaturated fatty acids. The kukui nut harvest occurs multiple times a year, primarily between July and August and again between December and January. Aleurites moluccana trees flourish in well-drained, slightly acidic to neutral soils (pH 5–8) under tropical conditions with 26–30°C maximum temperatures and abundant rainfall.
Since kukui nuts are wild-harvested, production of this oil depends largely on natural forest cycles rather than cultivated farming systems. This year’s yield has remained stable, with each harvest producing around 7 tons of oil—sufficient to meet current demand. Market conditions for Kukui Nut Carrier Oil remain balanced, and no shortages are anticipated in the coming quarter. Buyers are encouraged to start bulk order negotiations two to three months before harvest to secure supply and favorable pricing.
Sharp, cooling, and versatile, Menthol Crystals are produced from crystallizing Mentha Arvensis (Peppermint Japanese) Essential Oil. This variety of Mentha Arvensis is harvested in India once a year between June and July, thriving in moist, brown soil, rain after sowing, and ample sunshine during harvest.
This season, farmers have faced challenges due to competition from synthetic menthol, leading to a reduction in cultivated acreage and an overall decrease of 26–30% in yield compared to last year. The total crop size this year stands at approximately 27,000–30,000 metric tons. Consequently, a shortage of 20–25% is expected in the natural menthol market. Nonetheless, demand for natural menthol remains strong, and with lower supply, market prices are projected to rise through the next quarter.